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RAPPORT SUR LES DONNÉES DU SECTEUR POUR LE DEUXIÈME TRIMESTRE DE 2021 DE TRANSUNION

 Le rapport sur les données du secteur pour le deuxième trimestre de 2021 de TransUnion a montré que le marché du crédit a commencé à rebondir avec la réouverture de l’économie. L’élan positif autour des principales tendances et performances du crédit à la consommation a contribué à la hausse de l’indicateur de l’industrie du crédit de TransUnion Canada à 93.5 points, en hausse de neuf points par rapport au trimestre précédent et de 29 points par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie.

Variations par rapport à l’année précédente des taux de défaillance de 90 jours et plus pour les prêts non hypothécaires

Solde moyen des consommateurs, par produit*

Consistent with consumers paying down debt, delinquencies fell across all credit products throughout the pandemic. Overall consumer delinquency (90+ days past due for credit cards; 60+ days past due for all other products) was down by 0.63% YoY to 1.96% as of Q2 2021. Significant declines in delinquency seemed unlikely due to high levels of unemployment during the pandemic (14% last May and improving to 7.8% by end of Q2 2021), but consumers have benefited from higher levels of liquidity due to record savings, government subsidies, and lender deferrals.


“With the economy reopening and many Canadians returning to some normalcy, we expect to see overall consumption and demand ramp up. As consumer confidence soars and the pandemic recovery continues, lenders need to be prepared to meet the increase in credit demand.”

- Matthew Fabian, Director, Research and Industry Insights


 

Average Consumer Balance, by Product*

*Represents the average balance held by a consumer across each type of product (consumers can have multiple instances of same product)

While origination volumes have not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, they have begun to increase as the economy reopens. Originations in Q1 2021 were up 34% over their level at the lowest point of the pandemic in Q2 2020.

Growth in new credit continues to be fueled by the mortgage market as the pandemic drove a housing market boom. With low interest rates, and consumers looking for larger or unshared living spaces, home sales increased in volume and average sale prices increased 38% YoY. Mortgage originations increased 37.5% YoY in Q1 2021, and new mortgage originations accounted for $96B of new mortgage debt in the quarter, up 59.5% from Q1 2020.

Future recovery likely, but dependent on COVID-19 factors

Over the next 12 months, Canada appears set to experience a vigorous economic rebound, supported by steadily growing productivity, rise in employment rates and ongoing low interest rates. However, despite the overall trend towards recovery, a full return to pre-pandemic credit activity will depend upon factors such as the vaccine rollout and the impact of the Delta variant of COVID-19. A renewed outbreak would likely cause setbacks in reopening and a corresponding slowdown in economic activity.


“While pandemic-related threats to the economy do remain, as Canada continues to reopen, we expect consumers to increase their spending and for the recent acceleration in new credit growth to continue. Lenders should consider ramping up their acquisition strategies and channels accordingly. Market competition for acquisition and share of wallet will be high, as debt levels remain well below pre-pandemic levels. Accordingly, TransUnion Canada’s next annual Financial Services Summit, to be held on September 9-10 this year, will focus on enhanced strategies that lenders can leverage when prioritizing and preparing for future growth.”

- Matthew Fabian, Director, Research and Industry Insights


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